Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Obama wins
With Ohio called, it looks like my basic model was right (e.g., VA is still not called), but my model still only gave McCain a 30% chance of a win.
That's all moot to the bet though (which is why I got 4-1 odds), so I'll be paying off Thason next time I'm in Blacksburg. [Do you want cash or a nice dinner?]
In related news, Dave called me up and said he wants a shotgun for Christmas.
Update
Noted in the comments but promoted up, as more results have come in my "basic model" looks less and less right. Outright wrong really. In fact the based on this RCP map, it looks like the aggregated poll model was right.
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That's all moot to the bet though (which is why I got 4-1 odds), so I'll be paying off Thason next time I'm in Blacksburg. [Do you want cash or a nice dinner?]
In related news, Dave called me up and said he wants a shotgun for Christmas.
Update
Noted in the comments but promoted up, as more results have come in my "basic model" looks less and less right. Outright wrong really. In fact the based on this RCP map, it looks like the aggregated poll model was right.
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