Thursday, October 28, 2004
Fantasy Politics Run Amok
Alright. After wrangling with Microsoft Excel to write a spreadsheet that would score the contest itself once all values were entered, I'm ready to list the rules and the game elements.
The contest contains seven questions in which points will be scored based on an ordinal ranking of the entrants, and one question in which points are scored for a correct response.
For the ordinally-ranked questions, players will be ranked by how close their response was to the actual result. Closeness will be determined by the absolute value of the difference of the true value and your guess.
Players will then receive a certain number of points (depending on the question) for each person that they beat on that question. In the event of a tie, all tied players will receive points based on the highest tied place. (This is done for the sake of simplicity, but that is not to say that doing it this way is above debate.)
So in a 20-player game on a question that is worth 2 points per place, the player who is the closest to the actual value required by the question will receive 38 points. The player who is farthest from the actual value will receive 0 points. If 4 players tied for 5th place, they would all receive 30 points. The next closest player in the previous example would finish 9th and receive 22 points.
The final question is an all-or-nothing guess as to who will win the election. This question will have a value equal to the number of points awarded for first place in question 1: "How many electoral votes will the winner receive?" I have decided that it is redundant to ask how many EVs each candidate will collect, and how many states each candidate will win in a two-party system. Since these questions do not require the identification of a winning candidate, the final question ensures that no one who guesses the wrong candidate can receive more points for identifying an electoral vote total for the winner than someone who was farther off but actually picked the winner.
Entries may be made as comments to this post, or via e-mail to me at jthweatt (at) vt (dot) edu. Send questions, comments, and concerns via the same channels. If I don't know who you are, identify your entry clearly in the subject line, as I have a penchant for deleting e-mails from strangers. I will be serving as contest teller in addition to entering, so hopefully know one out there doubts my integrity. Then again, the only way that I could really affect the outcome of the contest is to affect the outcome of the election, and if I could do that, I wouldn't be sitting here doing this...
Here we go. The entry questions:
1. The number of electoral votes collected by the winner of the election. (4 points per place.)
The official electoral tally will be taken as a measure of the number of states won by the winning candidate. At this time, the number will not be subject to the whims of faithless electors.
2. The number of states won by the winner of the election. (3 points per place)
For the purposes of this question, Washington, D.C. is a state. Of course, the election winner can win fewer states than the election loser.
3. John Kerry's percentage of the national popular vote. (2 points per place)
4. George W. Bush's percentage of the national popular vote. (2 points per place)
Your responses to questions 3 and 4 need not total 100 percent. Of course, the election winner can have the lower percentage of the national popular vote.
5. John Kerry's percentage of the popular vote in the state of Texas. (1 point per place)
6. George W. Bush's percentage of the popular vote in the state of Massachusetts. (1 point per place)
7. The number of states in which any 3rd party candidate collects more than 3 percent of the popular vote. (2 points per place)
8. The winning candidate. (The number of points awarded for 1st place in question 1.)
If the election is close, this question may have to wait to be settled until the electoral votes are counted by the Congress. This question could be subject to the whims of faithless electors. If you have a problem with this inconsistency, now is the time to say something.
The player with the highest score for all questions is the winner. I imagine that we can find a way to get some fine Polyscifi swag to our World Series of Politics Main Event winner. It sure as heck won't be $5 million - at least not until we can get corporate sponsorship and broadcast time on ESPN.
Once again, happy predicting, and remember to vote!
P.S.
Neither The Palm Beach County Election Board, the Cook County Democratic Party, nor Tammany Hall played any role in the creation of this post.
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The contest contains seven questions in which points will be scored based on an ordinal ranking of the entrants, and one question in which points are scored for a correct response.
For the ordinally-ranked questions, players will be ranked by how close their response was to the actual result. Closeness will be determined by the absolute value of the difference of the true value and your guess.
Players will then receive a certain number of points (depending on the question) for each person that they beat on that question. In the event of a tie, all tied players will receive points based on the highest tied place. (This is done for the sake of simplicity, but that is not to say that doing it this way is above debate.)
So in a 20-player game on a question that is worth 2 points per place, the player who is the closest to the actual value required by the question will receive 38 points. The player who is farthest from the actual value will receive 0 points. If 4 players tied for 5th place, they would all receive 30 points. The next closest player in the previous example would finish 9th and receive 22 points.
The final question is an all-or-nothing guess as to who will win the election. This question will have a value equal to the number of points awarded for first place in question 1: "How many electoral votes will the winner receive?" I have decided that it is redundant to ask how many EVs each candidate will collect, and how many states each candidate will win in a two-party system. Since these questions do not require the identification of a winning candidate, the final question ensures that no one who guesses the wrong candidate can receive more points for identifying an electoral vote total for the winner than someone who was farther off but actually picked the winner.
Entries may be made as comments to this post, or via e-mail to me at jthweatt (at) vt (dot) edu. Send questions, comments, and concerns via the same channels. If I don't know who you are, identify your entry clearly in the subject line, as I have a penchant for deleting e-mails from strangers. I will be serving as contest teller in addition to entering, so hopefully know one out there doubts my integrity. Then again, the only way that I could really affect the outcome of the contest is to affect the outcome of the election, and if I could do that, I wouldn't be sitting here doing this...
Here we go. The entry questions:
1. The number of electoral votes collected by the winner of the election. (4 points per place.)
The official electoral tally will be taken as a measure of the number of states won by the winning candidate. At this time, the number will not be subject to the whims of faithless electors.
2. The number of states won by the winner of the election. (3 points per place)
For the purposes of this question, Washington, D.C. is a state. Of course, the election winner can win fewer states than the election loser.
3. John Kerry's percentage of the national popular vote. (2 points per place)
4. George W. Bush's percentage of the national popular vote. (2 points per place)
Your responses to questions 3 and 4 need not total 100 percent. Of course, the election winner can have the lower percentage of the national popular vote.
5. John Kerry's percentage of the popular vote in the state of Texas. (1 point per place)
6. George W. Bush's percentage of the popular vote in the state of Massachusetts. (1 point per place)
7. The number of states in which any 3rd party candidate collects more than 3 percent of the popular vote. (2 points per place)
8. The winning candidate. (The number of points awarded for 1st place in question 1.)
If the election is close, this question may have to wait to be settled until the electoral votes are counted by the Congress. This question could be subject to the whims of faithless electors. If you have a problem with this inconsistency, now is the time to say something.
The player with the highest score for all questions is the winner. I imagine that we can find a way to get some fine Polyscifi swag to our World Series of Politics Main Event winner. It sure as heck won't be $5 million - at least not until we can get corporate sponsorship and broadcast time on ESPN.
Once again, happy predicting, and remember to vote!
P.S.
Neither The Palm Beach County Election Board, the Cook County Democratic Party, nor Tammany Hall played any role in the creation of this post.
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