Monday, July 19, 2004
Three things go poof (2 temporarily, 1 permanently)
When personally in debt, there's two ways to overcome the debt - cut back on personal spending or find some extra income. Similar logic holds for the government. Spending can be cut or the economy can outgrow the deficit. The 90's saw a growing economy and legislative gridlock (and some more principled Republicans in Congress, so principled, in fact, that they actually did retire after 6 years like they said they would, leaving the less principled colleagues in office).
Anyways, yesteday Paul Harvey mentioned that the US had run a surplus for June of $19 billion. Even being a big supply sider, I still said "Nuh huh." But on marketwatch, I see this article which backs up the assertion. Another interesting note in the article from a supply-sider's perspective
On a related temporary "poof," the Edwards bounce, for what is was worth, is now over. Rasmussen's daily Presidential tracking poll now has Bush up on Kerry 47-45. At one point last week, Bush trailed Kerry 45-49. While I think that Bush's election numbers will generally trend upwards until the election (I'm predicting 55%) because 1) improving economy, 2) the improving situation in Iraq, 3)the general lackluster campaigning style of Kerry, and 4) It's a Summer Olympic year, I expect the Bush lead to vanish next week. Why? The Democratic National Convention should give Kerry a 3-5 point (net) bounce.
One more set of items going "poof", though this one appears to be permanent. Joe Wilson's credibility and the "Bush (and Blair) lied" meme have gone "poof." Both leaders were exonerated from misrepresenting intelligence or pressuring analysts in the Senate Intelligence Report and the Butler Report which says on p 121,
The collapse of the Niger "lie meme" is summed up nicely in this Barone piece and the impact on Joe Wilson is neatly summarized in this Weekly Standard piece. There's been a general blogosphere pile-on (and I apparently couldn't resist adding my two bits), so if you can't get enough of this stuff, start at instapundit or belgravdia dispatch and just start scrolling.
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Anyways, yesteday Paul Harvey mentioned that the US had run a surplus for June of $19 billion. Even being a big supply sider, I still said "Nuh huh." But on marketwatch, I see this article which backs up the assertion. Another interesting note in the article from a supply-sider's perspective
"Receipts totaled $214.4 billion in June, compared [with] $193 billion a year ago."The supply-side ramifications (cut taxes, raise revenues via economic growth) are also noted in this econopundit article. However, it should be noted that the US will still run a deficit for the year and will probably return to deficit spending in July. Why? Well tax receipts are mostly quarterly (other than withholding). Anyways, at least for the moment, the deficit has gone poof (If the admin can stop spending money domestically like a drunken sailor on shore leave, we'll be in great shape).
On a related temporary "poof," the Edwards bounce, for what is was worth, is now over. Rasmussen's daily Presidential tracking poll now has Bush up on Kerry 47-45. At one point last week, Bush trailed Kerry 45-49. While I think that Bush's election numbers will generally trend upwards until the election (I'm predicting 55%) because 1) improving economy, 2) the improving situation in Iraq, 3)the general lackluster campaigning style of Kerry, and 4) It's a Summer Olympic year, I expect the Bush lead to vanish next week. Why? The Democratic National Convention should give Kerry a 3-5 point (net) bounce.
One more set of items going "poof", though this one appears to be permanent. Joe Wilson's credibility and the "Bush (and Blair) lied" meme have gone "poof." Both leaders were exonerated from misrepresenting intelligence or pressuring analysts in the Senate Intelligence Report and the Butler Report which says on p 121,
"We conclude that,on the basis of the intelligence assessments at the time,covering both Niger and the Democratic Republic of Congo,the statements on Iraqi attempts to buy uranium from Africa in the Government ’s dossier,and by the Prime Minister in the House of Commons,were well-founded.By extension,we conclude also that the statement in President Bush ’s State of the Union Address of 28 January 2003 that:
The British Government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought
significant quantities of uranium from Africa was well-founded."
The collapse of the Niger "lie meme" is summed up nicely in this Barone piece and the impact on Joe Wilson is neatly summarized in this Weekly Standard piece. There's been a general blogosphere pile-on (and I apparently couldn't resist adding my two bits), so if you can't get enough of this stuff, start at instapundit or belgravdia dispatch and just start scrolling.
Comments(0) |
