PolySciFi Blog

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Over on Xrlq, there's a link to Winning Argument, a site that posts arguments that distill complex arguments into winning arguments against conservatives. It's a nice idea, and nicely presented. However, it smacks of hubris¹ and as such I can't resist systematically demolishing their arguments (plus they have a thing against Walmart, and you know how I feel about Walmart) (ed-But Jody aren't you insanely prideful, i.e., the personification of hubris, and isn't declaring an intention to systematically demolish their arguments just as hubristic? -Quiet you.)

Anyways in what may become a regular feature, I present to you the "Winning Argument" on why "The Bush administration's AIDS policy is a failure"
 
"Winning Argument" (copy=pasted from winning argument)
1. Bush has underfunded his own AIDS initiative.
In his 2003 State of the Union address, Bush promised to spend $15 billion over 5 years to combat AIDS. Two years later he has requested just $4.8 billion dollars. Just $350 million has been distributed to countries in need.
(2003 State of the Union, USA Today, Health GAP Coalition)

2. Bush is undermining global AIDS organizations.
Bush plans to slash funding for the Global Fund, the international coaltion dedicated to reducing the spread of aids, by 65% in 2005. As a result of the dramatic decrease in U.S. funding, the Global Fund will be "functionally bankrupt" in next year.
(Health GAP Coalition, Global AIDS Alliance)

3. Bush as failed to provide access to generic AIDS drugs.
The United States refuses to purchase generic drugs that have been approved by the United Nations that provide affordable care for people who have HIV/AIDS. Instead the United States has attempted to discredit their safety. (PBS)

4. Bush stresses abstinence over more effective programs.
The administration has blocked international efforts to provide teen sex education "because of [Bush's] belief in chastity before marriage." Bush's policies have lead to cuts in funding "for life-saving drives to encourage condom use." A recent study in Minnesota found that an abstinence only education program in school doubled the number of students who said they were likely to have sex during high school.
(Guardian, Minnesota AIDS projects)
 
Why they're wrong:
Supporters of the administration's AIDS policy stress that the president has spent a lot of money on the issue. Certainly, this is better than nothing. But nothing shouldn't be the standard. At the very least, the president should live up to the standard he set for himself. Bush promised that he would devote $15 billion to AIDS over 5 years and he isn't following through. Bush says that the United States is "setting the example for others to follow" in supporting the Global AIDS funds and is slashing funding.
(Bush Speech)

A better idea:
Fully fund a comprehensive and cooperative AIDS program that includes sex education and access to affordable anti-viral drugs.

Why it's not a Winning Argument (copy-pasted from my reply in the comments, with some formatting additions that were not possible in the comments)
1. Bush has underfunded his own AIDS initiative.
I can quibble over the specifics of your 4.8 number (it’s actually $4.95 billion), but that’s small potatoes compared to the failure to consider a simple linear projection. The fact of the matter, budgets grow year over year, typically exponentially. In 2004 (year 1 post AIDS pledge), the US provided $2.25 billion to combat AIDS globally. In 2005 (year 2), we have promised a little over $2.7 billion – an increase of $0.45 billion. Presuming a continued linear increase (which would be less than an expected exponential growth), we get the following numbers (in billions):

Y1    2.25
Y2    2.70
Y3    3.15
Y4    3.60
Y5    4.05
       15.75

So the Bush admin is on pace to spend MORE than what was originally promised. See this site.

2. Bush is undermining global AIDS organizations.
While Global Fund will indeed lose some funding from the US (still will get $200 million from the US), total US funding for global AIDS will grow in 2005 to $2.7 billion dollars – an increase of 20% over 2004’s $2.25 billion as I just outlined. Apparently you believe that sending dollars to Global Fund is far and away more important than to any other source. However, you do not even attempt to make this case.

3. Bush as failed to provide access to generic AIDS drugs.
In no way did you address the government’s generic drug safety concerns. For better or for worse (ok, for worse), we live in an excessively litigious world, and if the US provides unsafe drugs, we will be sued. For a lot. I presume your belief that generic drugs are safe is premised on their safety in the US. However, guaranteeing that safety is a nontrivial task. Also note that generic drugs go through a rigoruous (and lengthy) screening process before FDA approval.  What would be a reasonable response in such a situation? Perhaps study the generics’ safety before approving? Something which your article says the Bush admin is doing.

4. Bush stresses abstinence over more effective programs.

a. You links are misleading and fail to demonstrate effectiveness of other programs (critical to your point).

b. Uganda’s ABC program (Abstain, Be faithful, use Condoms) is what the Bush admin touts. This is even implied in your Guardian link where it says“Backed by the Vatican, [the Bush admin] is understood to have been pushing for guarantees that UN-funded sex education programmes will include commitments to preach chastity outside marriage.”But ABC (supported and championed by USAID) has been wildly successful, more so than any other program. It has worked better than any other program in Africa.

c. Your Minnesota link refers to an abstinence only pilot plan, which is VERY DIFFERENT from the international plan pushed by Bush (ABC).

d. Your Minnesota link doesn’t say that the pilot program is less effective, it merely says it is not more effective.

e. Sexual activity is a self reported statistic (unless Big Brother really is watching, hey why does my TV have a dull glow?), and as such is quite dubious. I, for one, used to report that I was pregnant (I’m male) and had sex frequently whenever pulled out of a normal school routine to fill out those gawdawful sex and drug surveys (I also attribute a non-neglible portion of the decline in reported highschool drug use to my and my friends graduations. Oh yeah, we never touched the stuff).

A better indicator for effectiveness would be rate of new STD infections. Since the article doesn’t address STDs, the closest proxy in the article is teenage pregnancy rates (not a 1-1 link, but the two stats should be highly correlated). And the article states that it’s down significantly. This doesn’t disprove your argument, but it certainly doesn’t help it either.

(Not in original reply, but I think it should be there) The why libs are right stuff is just silly in light of my responses. On the better idea, yes to both (and both are being done), but stressing the importance of monogamous relations and abstinence is important and works better than just condoms + sex ed. A program that ignores the importance of abstinence and monogamy in preventing the transmission of STDs is much less effective as evidenced by Uganda.

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