Sunday, June 20, 2004
Who wants to live forever?
Before I asked my fiance to marry me I took great pains to tell her that there was a strong possibility that "to death do us part" might be equivalent to "forever" as in we may never die.
Since about middle school, I've been thinking that there was a strong possibility that approximately before my expected lifespan was up biotechnology would advance to the point that eternal life on Earth would be possible. I say approximately as I figured that it would be approximately 50 years from now when this would become reality. Unfortunately much too late for my parents, in plenty of time for my children (in fact I've considered the possibilty of extracting and freezing some stem cells for my kids when they're born), and I would be a borderline. If by the time I was 40, if things weren't going well, I've thought that I may switch fields from wireless to bioinformatics (where I expect the breakthrough to come from)1.
My specific expectation is that during my natural lifespan, technology would progress to the point that I could expect to live an extra 20-30 years. Then within the 20-30 years, another 20-30 would be added, after which life expectancy would grow exponentially as techniques for microcellular repair were realized.
Well, I'm not alone (not in a UFO - visitors sense) in my thoughts. Aubrey de Grey has expressed similar thoughts in PloS biology except that she does it with cooler terminology, like Actuarial Escape Velocity. After drawing similar conclusions, de Grey speculates on what the year-over-year increase in life expectancy would have to be to extend life indefintiely, thus escaping this mortal sphere in a different sense.
"Yeah!" you say. "Jody's not a lone nut (at least on the lone part), and maybe he's right, and if he's right, then great!"
Not so fast. There's going to be some upheavals along the way. Eliminating death as a possibility will cause all sorts of big sociological changes, some good, some bad. Most of the bad will come before the good, particularly in the transition period. So here's the bad things coming:
Ideally, I would like to end this post on a witty thought, but instead I'll end the post with a song from Highlander.
Lyrics from Queen's Who Wants to Live Forever? (nod to Blackcatter)
Footnotes
1. How's that for arrogance?
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Since about middle school, I've been thinking that there was a strong possibility that approximately before my expected lifespan was up biotechnology would advance to the point that eternal life on Earth would be possible. I say approximately as I figured that it would be approximately 50 years from now when this would become reality. Unfortunately much too late for my parents, in plenty of time for my children (in fact I've considered the possibilty of extracting and freezing some stem cells for my kids when they're born), and I would be a borderline. If by the time I was 40, if things weren't going well, I've thought that I may switch fields from wireless to bioinformatics (where I expect the breakthrough to come from)1.
My specific expectation is that during my natural lifespan, technology would progress to the point that I could expect to live an extra 20-30 years. Then within the 20-30 years, another 20-30 would be added, after which life expectancy would grow exponentially as techniques for microcellular repair were realized.
Well, I'm not alone (not in a UFO - visitors sense) in my thoughts. Aubrey de Grey has expressed similar thoughts in PloS biology except that she does it with cooler terminology, like Actuarial Escape Velocity. After drawing similar conclusions, de Grey speculates on what the year-over-year increase in life expectancy would have to be to extend life indefintiely, thus escaping this mortal sphere in a different sense.
"Yeah!" you say. "Jody's not a lone nut (at least on the lone part), and maybe he's right, and if he's right, then great!"
Not so fast. There's going to be some upheavals along the way. Eliminating death as a possibility will cause all sorts of big sociological changes, some good, some bad. Most of the bad will come before the good, particularly in the transition period. So here's the bad things coming:
If you think the third world is itchin for AIDS drugs now, just wait. This is the sort of thing that people will kill for.The good news, effectively all after the transition period.
God help us if the technology is nationalized as it would give governments the ultimate power over their citizens.
Risky jobs will not be worked by anyone anymore (your life value goes to infinity). This is particularly troublesome with respect to space exploration which will become important at some point in the future (robots?).
Birth rates may drop to near zero. (this comes later)
Dictators won't just die off.
Medicare, what's that?Other sociological issuess will of course arise, some of which cannot be easily ascertained, such as the role of religion. But I'll reserve judging whether or not these are good things or bad things.
Social security, what's that?
Pension? Why?
Long distance space travel becomes practical (what's 1000 years out of infinity?)
Ideally, I would like to end this post on a witty thought, but instead I'll end the post with a song from Highlander.
There's no time for us.
There's no place for us.
What is this thing that fills our dreams,
Yet slips away from us?
Who wants to live forever?
Who wants to live forever?
There's no chance for us.
It's all decided for us.
This world has only one sweet moment
Set aside for us.
Who wants to live forever?
Who dares to love forever?
When love must die.
But touch my tears with your lips,
Touch my world with your fingertips.
And we can have forever,
And we can have forever.
Forever is our today.
Who wants to live forever?
Who wants to live forever?
Forever is our today.
Who waits forever anyway?
Lyrics from Queen's Who Wants to Live Forever? (nod to Blackcatter)
Footnotes
1. How's that for arrogance?
Comments(0) |
